Aviation reports
The first of these two reports considers the
impact on aviation demand of oil price rises, improved rail links and
videoconferencing.
The second uses the DfT original cost benefit spreadsheets (called
SCAB) to look at the impact of changing assumptions such as the treatment
of
foreign
visitors and tax losses. The files are in pdf format. Please feel free
to quote from them, as long as the source is acknowledged, and to comment
by e-mail.
The key changes are:
• Oil price to reflect current price of over $100 a barrel (instead of the UK Government assumption of $65 today falling to $53 by 2012 and remaining at that price indefinitely)
• Taxation revenues, for example from Air Passenger Duty (or its replacement), treated as neutral in the appraisal
• Substitution of corporate air travel by improvements to electronic communications, in particular strong promotion of video conferencing
• Transfer of short distance flights to rail, both in UK and for nearby EU destinations such as Paris and Brussels
• The
cost of carbon raised above the average figure used by Government,
in particular the test used until 2007 of doubling
the central estimate.
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